CFTC proposes swap classification for event contracts
The CFTC has proposed expressly classifying event contracts as swaps under federal commodities law.
Nick Sawinyh
Prediction Markets @ DeFi Blog
Nick Sawinyh
HIP-4 vs Polymarket: Who Resolves Reality?
Hyperliquid's HIP-4 outcome markets put prediction trading inside an exchange. The contest with Polymarket is less about fees than about who gets to call the truth.
Nick Sawinyh
Polymarket's $600K Drain Was a Key Compromise
An attacker drained ~$600K from a dormant Polymarket ops wallet on Polygon. It got labeled a contract exploit. It wasn't, and the difference matters.
Nick Sawinyh
The Speculation Gradient: Sports Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks
A DeFi analyst's field report on sports prediction markets, the $1.1T BofA estimate, the CFTC vs states jurisdictional war, and where these venues actually sit on the productive-to-predatory gradient.
Nick Sawinyh
Futard.io and the Futarchy Bet: Can Prediction Markets Fix Crypto Launches?
Futard.io locks launch funds in escrow and uses prediction markets to govern spending. The treasury model is a clear upgrade. The futarchy governance is an open experiment with real limitations.
Nick Sawinyh